Climate Modeling Expert for Ho Chi Minh City

USAID Vietnam Urban Energy Security

Scope of Work

Activity: Technical support to the Development of Danang & HCMC Net-zero Carbon City Action Plans

Position: Climate Modeling Expert for Ho Chi Minh City

Level of Effort: 90 working days

Period of Performance: January 9 – September 30, 2022

Base of Operations: Ho Chi Minh City (with possible in-country travel)

Project Background

As Vietnam experiences steep increases in energy demand and rising air pollution challenges, there is growing recognition that cleaner, more reliable sources of energy are needed and greater capital investment is necessary. USAID Vietnam Urban Energy Security project (the Project) works closely with target cities (Danang and Ho Chi Minh City - HCMC) to improve enabling frameworks, mobilize investment, and increase the adoption of innovative solutions for advanced, distributed energy.

The overall goal of the project is “advanced, distributed energy solutions deployed to improve urban energy resilience and energy security” in Vietnam. At its completion, the Vietnam Urban Energy Security must achieve the following high-level expected results:

1. At least 400 megawatts (MW) of advanced, distributed energy systems deployed in the selected cities.
2. At least $600 million in public and private investment mobilized for advanced, distributed urban energy systems.
3. At least 20 innovative solutions to address urban energy and environment issues demonstrated and/or commercialized.

The national climate change context

Vietnam’s net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions tripled between 1994 and 2006 to 316 million tons of CO₂eq. Emissions from the energy sector have been largely responsible for this growth in emissions as the country’s industrial output and demand for energy have increased. Without action, emissions are forecast to again triple by 2030, to 930 million tons of CO₂eq.^[1]

Vietnam has set ambitious goals: of becoming a high-income country by 2045; phasing out coal-fueled power generation by the 2040s (or as soon as possible thereafter); and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Achieving these goals will require profound actions and the role of cities, and the policies they select, will be significant.

The city context

In 2016 HCMC emitted 37 million tons of CO₂eq, which represented 12% of Vietnam’s total emissions. Emissions came from buildings (34%), energy industry (27%), transport (27%) and waste (10%). Population growth and the economy are expected to continue growing rapidly resulting in ever greater energy demand and consumption, and carbon emissions. If no action is taken, emissions in HCMC will rise from 37 to 102 million tons of CO₂eq by 2050.^[2] Similar data for Danang is currently being calculated and collated, with support from the Project.

Following Vietnam’s commitment at the 26^th UN Climate Change Conference in November 2021 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the Government of Vietnam has requested HCMC, Danang (and other cities) to study options for achieving net-zero carbon cities and to develop  net-zero carbon by 2050 plans .

USAID Vietnam Urban energy Security is a five-year project with the overall goal of “advanced, distributed energy solutions deployed to improve urban energy resilience and energy security” in Vietnam. The Project is mandated to focus on HCMC and Danang cities.

HCMC and Danang counterparts have requested technical support from the Project to:

• advise on an approach to develop their net-zero carbon city plans
• support modelling, the results of which can inform their net-zero carbon city plan
• provide recommendations on the enabling policies and measures required to implement the net-zero carbon city plan.

The key counterparts in both cities will be DOIT and DONRE (Department of Natural Resources and Environment).

Objectives

The objective of this assignment is to facilitate the development of a net-zero action plan for HCMC. The action plan will draw on national and international expertise and experiences and will be developed in close collaboration with city counterparts. The process should aim to help build capacity and awareness of key stakeholders, including DONRE, DOIT and other relevant departments, thereby increasing city-level ownership of the action plans.

Net-zero action plan development process

The Project will mobilize a team of up to eight local and one international experts to support the HCMC to develop their net-zero action plans. The Consultant team responsible for the development of the net-zero action plans will follow this process and activities:

• Collate and review 1) relevant Danang and HCMC city-level documentation, and 2) relevant international documentation and experience:
  a.       City-level documentation will include (but will not be limited to):
  
  • Action plans e.g. Energy Efficiency Action Plans, Climate Change Action Plans, Green Growth Action Plans)
  • GHG inventories and low carbon scenarios (already developed for HCMC and under development in Danang)
  • Policies e.g. related to transport, waste management, housing
  • Data and reports e.g. energy audits; data and reports related to the national Cleaner Production program

  b.       International-level documentation will include (but will not be limited to):
  

  • Policies
  • Approaches
  • Frameworks
  • Activities and measures e.g. low carbon buildings, smart energy infrastructure (smart meters, e-mobility charging stations, electricity distribution grid, distributed energy solutions), and clean electrification.

• Collate key learnings from the international community e.g. through workshops, consultation meetings and learning exchanges. Potential sources include the C40,^[3] and Net-zero world initiatives, as well as cities that have already made advances in this field.

• Through a combination of workshops and consultation meetings, engage with relevant local stakeholders in each city.  Stakeholders will be relevant to both Danang and HCMC and will include (but will not be limited to) MONRE, DONRE, DOIT, PPC, DOT, DPI, the private sector, and academia. At least three consultation workshops are envisaged per city: an inception workshop, a consultation workshop (to source information, and share ideas and reactions) and a final workshop (to share the draft roadmap).

• Based on the above, develop scenarios and model:
  a.       Develop different scenarios for HCMC and Danang including 1) a business as usual (BAU) scenario 2) a low carbon scenario, and 3) a net-zero scenario.
  b.       Develop a modeling tool to provide information on emissions, energy demand, finances required, and timelines for each of the different scenarios

• Conduct a barrier analysis to identify and present the key financial, social, technical and legal barriers/ challenges to implementing the net-zero carbon city plans in Danang and HCMC and recommendations on how to overcome the barriers.

• Develop a high level net-zero 2050 roadmap for each city with recommended targets, actions, and suggested approach.

Role and Responsibilities

Under the guidance of the International Expert, the Climate Modeling Expert (as referred to “Consultant”) is expected to undertake the following activities:

• Review relevant national and city-level information, data and studies or modelling works in relation to Ho Chi Minh city’s climate change context and plans/programs:
  National and city-level information and data may include, but will not be limited to:
  o   Action plans (E.g. Energy Efficiency Action Plans, Climate Change Action Plans, Green Growth Action Plans)
  o   GHG inventories and low carbon scenarios (Already developed for HCMC)
  o   Policies (i.e in relation to transport, waste management, housing)
  o   Data and reports (E.g. energy audits; data and reports related to the National Cleaner Production Program)

• Undertake the modeling and development of scenarios, in accordance with guidance from the International Expert and local Climate Policy Expert:                
  
  • Support the International Expert to identify and select of suitable climate model for net-zero modeling;
  • Identify the data needs and prepare the data collection plan in collaboration with data expert (to be recruited separately);
  • Develop of different scenarios for HCMC including 1) a business as usual (BAU) scenario 2) low carbon scenario (s), and 3) a net-zero scenario by 2050.
  • Implement the modeling work as per guidance and requests from the International Expert and the local Climate Policy Expert.
  • Review and consolidation of mitigation measures for HCMC city as per low carbon and net-zero scenarios;
  • Building Ho Chi Minh City’s model to provide information on emissions, energy demand, required finances, and timelines for each of the different scenarios;

• Support the International Expert in developing a high-level net-zero by 2050 action plan for HCMC with recommended targets and  actions.

• Support the International Expert in developing a report which documents the process of City’s action plan development. This will include an outline of the process, challenges, lessons, achievements and will be useful for other cities interested in developing net-zero action plans.

Deliverables and Expected Timeline

Throughout the assignment, the Consultant is expected to participate in regular phone calls and meetings to provide progress updates and should provide outlines of deliverables for comment and approval before developing the reports and prepare drafts for feedback and input before finalizing. Additionally, the Consultant should provide information regarding interviews held, including interview notes, minutes of meeting, workshops notes, etc.

The Consultant is expected to produce the following deliverables:

Location and Reporting

The Consultant will report to the Net-zero Task Lead. The work-products and deliverables will be reviewed, commented and approved by the Project.

The reporting may be through in-person meeting and/or through weekly conference call.

All communication will be in English (written and verbally). All deliverables will be in both English and Vietnamese.

Qualification Requirements

• Master degree in Environment, Climate Change or relevant fields.
• At least 10 years’ experience in working experience in environmental management or climate change;
• Deep understanding and experience in climate change, mitigation/net zero and/or environmental analysis works, preferably climate modeling/simulation works;
• Familiar with city’s air quality studies and/or greenhouse gas inventory works;
• Demonstrated experience in developing and drafting comprehensive reports and presentations of study outputs and findings;
• Past experience working with Ho Chi Minh city government agencies, preferably with HCMC DONRE.
• Past experience working with some modelling apps or tools.

Application Instructions

Applicants should send their CVs and Cover Letters detailing their relevant experience and information to [email protected].

Deadline for the application: January 06, 2023

About DAI

DAI works at the cutting edge of international development, combining technical excellence, professional project management, and exceptional customer service to solve our clients’ most complex problems. Since 1970, DAI has worked in 150 developing and transition countries, providing comprehensive development solutions in areas including crisis mitigation, democratic governance and public sector management, agriculture and agribusiness, private sector development and financial services, economics and trade, water and natural resources management, and energy and climate change. Clients include international development agencies, international lending institutions, private corporations and philanthropies, and host-country governments. More information about DAI can be found on the DAI website (www.dai.com).