Consultant to Identify Subsectors for Project Implementation in Vietnam

Terms of Reference

Sector selection for Productivity Ecosystems for Decent Work in Vietnam

1. Background

The Productivity Ecosystems for Decent Work Programme (PESDW), launched jointly by the SME unit of the ILO Enterprises Department and the Employment Policy Department, together with the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD), aims at addressing constraints to productivity growth and decent job creation. The Programme was launched in 2022 and will run until the end of 2025, being piloted in Ghana, South Africa and Viet Nam and implemented by the ILO Enterprises and Employment Departments.

The decade following the global financial crisis has witnessed consistent decline in productivity growth, a development that has been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. This trend is of particular concern to most emerging and developing economies. Here, the contribution of structural transformation (i.e. labour reallocation toward higher-productivity sectors as well as within-sector transformation) to productivity growth has slowed down and integration in global and regional value chains, which is key to boosting technology transfers, digitalization and improved management processes at enterprise level, is decreasing. The strong growth in services sectors in many emerging and developing countries has also led to increased divergence in productivity, especially in those countries where jobs are moving from agriculture directly to services, bypassing manufacturing. Rather than generating productive employment, this trend has expanded low-productivity informal jobs in the services sector while leaving low-productivity jobs in agriculture as the main provider of employment in developing countries.

Achieving a virtuous cycle between productivity growth, employment creation and the promotion of decent work is required if economic growth is to lead to poverty alleviation and prosperity. To create and strengthen this virtuous cycle, the ILO proposes the Productivity Ecosystems for Decent Work Programme. The Programme is built on the recognition that productivity growth is determined by a myriad of interfacing dynamics across policy, markets and enterprises. Furthermore, the virtuous cycle between productivity and decent work, where productivity growth leads to decent job creation and vice-versa, is not automatic.

Therefore, rather than using a “one size fits all” approach or intervening at a single level, the Programme will address productivity and decent work deficits across policy, sector and enterprise levels for win-win solutions that improve productivity and that ensure, through social dialogue and workplace cooperation, that gains from productivity growth and decent work are distributed equitably. For this purpose, the Programme will select a “slice” of the local productivity ecosystem, i.e., a sector and associated segment of the overall ecosystem in which the potential for productivity growth and decent job creation are aligned with feasibility to intervene.

In Vietnam the productivity agenda has high priority for the Government, where national productivity programme (Nb 712) was declared almost 10 years ago, and extended in Aug 2020 by the decision of Prime Minister (Nb. 1322) for 2020-2030. A separate national productivity programme on science and technology was developed in 2021 (Nb. 36). However, despite this declared political will to promote productivity growth, the results of policies remain unclear for variety of reasons; among them lack of tangible incentives for firms and workers, but essentially there is a need for precise design and detailed plan on how to achieve the productivity goal. The ILO’s PESDW programme therefore aims to engage stakeholders into testing and piloting approaches at all 3 layers of intervention and offering evidence-based advice for effective policy making for Government and social partners in Vietnam.

In the framework of the project inception phase, the final goal of this assignment and its underlying tasks is to support the identification of 2-3 subsectors for which the method conceived for this project will be applied.

2. Objectives and tasks

Objectives

The overall objective of this assignment is to identify2-3 subsectors for project implementation in Vietnam. The steps for achieving the list of the final 2-3 subsectors combine both drafting technical documents (described in these terms of reference) as well as a consultation process occurring in parallel.

The specific objectives set in these terms of reference are the following:

1. Sectoral analysis of the long-list of sub-sectors: to produce a technical note with analysis of the long-list of sub-sectors by looking at major economic trends, including productivity trends, employment, contribution to GDP, growth potential etc.
2. Rating of the long-list of sub-sectors: Design rating matrix, to be used for the ranking of the long-list of economic sub-sectors based on the selection of criteria (based on the guiding questions shared by ILO with selected consultants). The ranking matrix should be accompanied by the analytical note, explaining the process leading to the suggested matrix. As a result, a selection of 2-3 sub-sectors will be offered for consultations with stakeholders. Produce a rapid subsector analysis for the 2-3 shortlisted subsectors as part of analytical note, and discuss the analysis through consultations with partners and stakeholders.

Tasks

Considering the above mentioned specific objectives, the assignment will include the following tasks:

1.     Sectoral analysis of the long-list of sub-sectors: Produce a broader analysis by looking at major macro-economic and sectoral trends in Vietnam. This analysis should first consider any pre-existing documents and/or programmes defining policies on the sectors, as well as be based on a review of main economic indicators, such as the sectoral composition of GDP, sectoral and demographic shares of employment, labour productivity, the country’s ranking in global competitiveness[1] and other relevant indicators. An analytical framework with key guiding questions will be provided by the ILO to short-listed consultants. For the more quantitative part of the analysis, it needs to be based on the available data sources, and should be done at a relatively granular level, such as using e.g. ISIC Rev.4 at the 2 digit level and/or GSO (if feasible). Regarding the more qualitative part of the analysis, it should consider the priorities set by the government, donors and other relevant partners, and should take into account a number of predetermined criteria, such as:

• Government priorities and programs (e.g. by considering related documents, with a particular focus on priority sectors) among these sectors:
  
  1. Electronics
  2. Mechanics, machineries
  3. Garment and textile
  4. Shoes
  5. Wood and wood products
  6. Seafood processing
  7. Supporting industries
  8. Tourism
  9. Agro-processing
• Decent job creation potential of the above sector/sub-sectors
• social and environmental risk factors (e.g. potential for improved productivity and competitiveness through upgrading of social dialogue, HR and wages)
• the legal and regulatory framework relevant to the sector
• related labour market and employment policies.

The result of the task will be the analytical paper of around 35 pages long, and structured in the following way:

• Introduction/Background (1pages)
• Methodology / Approach (1-2 pages)
• Broader analysis of the Vietnam economy ((e.g., focus on the competitiveness, import/export, etc) in Vietnam (2-3 pages)
• Analysis of subsectors in the country (focus on above mentioned criteria, such as government priorities and programs, job creation, labour productivity, social/environmental issues, technology diffusion, etc.) (up to 30 pages)
• Conclusions and recommendations (2-3 pages)
• Annexes

2.      The rating matrix, to be used for narrowing down the list of subsectors.  It should support the identification of the list of subsectors based on the rapid analysis through evidence-based and data-driven scoring for each selected criterion. The matrix needs to take into account the following aspects:

• Relevance of the subsectors to productivity improvement and for employment creation/working conditions improvement
• Opportunity for growth and spillover effect of subsector influencing productivity of other subsectors
• Feasibility to stimulate change and achieve impact within timeframe.  

ILO PESDW team will share its views on criteria for the rating matrix with the selected consultants. The rating matrix should be presented with a short analytical note explaining briefly how it was defined.

The rapid subsector analysis for the 2-3 shortlisted subsectors will provide more detailed interpretation of application of the rating matrix to these subsectors, conclusions from meetings with stakeholders, FGDs and interviews to collect actual and implicit types of data. Essentially, the rapid subsector analysis will serve as the basis for designing interventions by PESDW.

The entire document under Task 2 consisting of description of the rating matrix + rapid sub-sector analysis should be no longer than 15 pages.

Note that when producing the final report, a final version should be presented, putting together all the previously produced documents, as described in points 1 and 2 above.

Conference calls are expected to be organised on a regular basis (e.g. weekly basis) with the responsible person at the ILO, in order to ensure a smooth advancement of the analysis and related work. Consultants should also expect to be involved in consultations with stakeholders, and other relevant meetings to the sector selection process. Execution of tasks should be conducted in a gender-inclusive manner and all deliverables are expected to meet gender-sensitive language and should include gender-mainstreamed content.

3. Deliverables and timeline

For each of the tasks described in section 2 of these terms of reference, the deliverables will be the following:

1. A draft version of the documents requested for each of the task (i.e. tasks 1-2), to be sent to the ILO for revision and commenting
2. A final version of the document requested for each of the task (i.e. tasks 1-2), to be sent to the ILO for revision and commenting. Power Point slides developed based on the final report, and presentation delivered to stakeholders at validation workshop in Vietnam, timeline and details to be informed by PESDW Vietnam.

Deliverables and timelines

ILO will review all deliverables and provide feedback on whether the deliverables are in line with expectations. All deliverables should be in English.

The contractor is expected to propose the total value and cost break down for the work above.

5. Application process

Taking into consideration the information provided, contractors/ team of consultants interested in this assignment are asked to submit the following:

1. Proposal (maximum 5 pages) that includes:
   
   • Short outline of work to be performed
   • Process and timeline for the assignment
   • Consultants’ / company experience and skills relevant to the assignment
   • Estimated number of days, daily rate and other costs.
2. Sample of previous work, preferably related to the focus of this consultancy
3. Up-to-date Curriculum Vitae (CV) (with references) of consultants in the team
   

The documentation indicated above should be sent in English in electronic format to Mai Nguyen Thi Hong, International Labour Organization (main [1]@ilo.org [1]) by 09 May 2022.

All proposals will be evaluated on the following criteria:

1. Quality of technical proposal
2. Cost proposal
3. Proposed timeline
4. Qualifications of proposed staff

Qualification requirements:

The consultant should have at least 7 years of working experience related to economic analysis, market systems analysis and value chain development, as well as familiarity with data analysis. Work experience in sectoral analysis is considered an asset. Strong writing skills in English is a requirement and spoken Vietnamese is an advantage (can be represented by national expert).

The chosen consultant will be notified one week after the end of the submission deadline.

Unsuccessful applicants will be added to a consultant roster and might receive future calls for expressions of interests (please indicate if you do not wish to receive these).

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